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DTN Midday Grain Comments     06/12 10:56

   Soybean, Wheat Futures Lower at Midday; Corn Higher

   Corn futures are a penny to three cents higher at midday Wednesday; soybean 
futures are flat to 6 cents lower; wheat futures are 12 to 20 cents lower.

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

MARKET SUMMARY:

   Corn futures are a penny to three cents higher at midday Wednesday; soybean 
futures are flat to 6 cents lower; wheat futures are 12 to 20 cents lower. The 
U.S. stock market is firmer at midday with the S&P 60 points higher. The U.S. 
Dollar Index is 90 lower. The interest rate products are firmer. Energy trade 
has crude narrowly mixed and natural gas .1 lower. Livestock trade is mostly 
higher. Precious metals are higher with gold up 20.00.

CORN:

   Corn futures are a penny higher on new crop and 3 cents higher on nearby 
July at midday which has us pushing back toward nearby resistance on the chart. 
We are near the daily higher in pre-report action with the report due out 
shortly. On the report at 11 a.m. CDT, trade is looking for old-crop corn 
carryout at 2.005 billion bushels (bb), down just slightly from last month, and 
new at 2.085 bb with slight declines in world numbers. Ethanol margins should 
remain stable with the weekly report expected to show steady production and 
stocks. Warmer weather continues to be seen in the short-term forecast to boost 
early growth with rains confined to the north and west. Basis action should 
continue to remain mostly sideways to firmer with the spread strength. On the 
July chart, the 20-day moving average at $4.54 is resistance, which we are just 
below, with the Lower Bollinger Band as support at $4.37, which we bounced from 
last week. Expect the market to focus on weather after any reaction to the USDA 
numbers.

SOYBEANS:

   Soybean futures are flat to 6 cents lower with spread action still firming 
while oil leads the product complex ahead of the report. Meal is 2.00 higher 
and oil is slightly lower. July beans are 30 over November at midday. On the 
report, trade is looking for old-crop carryout at 348 million bushels (mb) and 
new crop at 450 mb, both up slightly from last month, with world numbers edging 
lower on Brazil and Argentina's poor finish. Open weather should help early 
development and late planting. South America should continue to lead the export 
market, but we did see another sale of old crop to China of 106,000 mt 
Wednesday morning, marking the third sale in four sessions. Basis should remain 
steady in the short term with oil lagging on crush margins again. The July 
chart resistance is at the 20-day moving average at $12.10 with support at the 
fresh low at 11.74 1/4.

WHEAT:

   Wheat futures are 12 to 20 cents lower with trade giving back much of the 
Tuesday gains with euro values sliding back sharply lower and little other 
fresh news. On the report, trade is looking for all wheat production at 1.885 
bb, up slightly from last month with carryout at 778 mb on new crop, up 
slightly from last month, while world stocks are expected to see a bigger drop 
on Black Sea area losses. Plains harvest should expand significantly by the end 
of the week. The dollar strength is easing after the cooler inflation numbers 
with MATIF action fading back to the recent lows. On the KC July chart 
resistance is the 20-day moving average at $6.87, with the lower Bollinger Band 
at $6.37, which we are near at midday. The 100-day moving average is at $6.15, 
which is the next downside major moving average. This slide and downward 
momentum could create long liquidation Wednesday afternoon if the USDA does not 
deliver any friendly data.

   David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com

   Follow him on social platform X @davidfiala




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